Strange things are happening

Even though many of us are holidaying, it is hard to ignore the strange things happening in geopolitics and international trade relations. No one knows the likely outcomes of President Trump’s tariff policies, his interventions in the Gaza and Ukraine crises, and his war on some of the top US universities. It is, however, clear that vital, long term sourcing and manufacturing strategies for many countries and companies have been and will be disrupted for some time to come. Furthermore, major US research projects and some academic careers have been abruptly halted. This will not help productivity in the US or elsewhere. Hopefully, the relative stability and academic freedom of Europe will prove attractive to international companies and talent, and help fuel a European economic revival.

The UK’s second quarter growth of 0.3% of GDP is commendable in the circumstances of international disruption and the deep legacy of austerity. The UK government is showing encouraging enthusiasm that AI can reduce the workload that has grown in parallel with the increased use of computers, turning GPs, police, health workers, and consumers into data collection slaves feeding the databases on which an online society depends. A reduction in such bureaucracy should result in efficiency gains and aid productivity. Perhaps we could also hope for an AI governance engine to emerge? This could be used to assess problems such as the infected blood scandal, the Horizon computer scandal, and the Grenfell Tower fire, and assess what failed and how well corrections and compensations are being delivered. Even if AI is not perfect, it would be a low bar to do better than has been achieved to date.