Economic and business planning these days is a bit like trying to play chess on the deck of a yacht in a storm. It appears inevitable that the introduction of new and arbitrary trade tariffs, cancelling major trade agreements, and restricting strategic exports will reduce international trade. Nevertheless, this is the approach of the new US administration who also appear to be abandoning long established defence and security agreements, and stopping US support for Ukraine’s courageous resistance to Russian aggression. Reacting to this, European leaders, notably, France's President Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Starmer are already demonstrating their independence. Their ranks have also just been swelled by the new German Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, who has signalled his ambition for a stronger Germany and a stronger Europe. (more…)