The joint Federal Trust/Global Policy Institute/Industry Forum project to tackle the difficult questions raised by Brexit did produce some significant survey consensus about what Brexit should provide. Sadly, in the time between the survey and March 2017 it has become clear that, as the Rolling Stones would say ‘You don’t always get what you want’. The most serious issue for business is that it now seems highly unlikely that the UK will remain in the Single Market.

For the full report click here Brexit survey full results

In this provocative article, David Rowe argues that although Brexit will clearly lead to short-term economic turmoil driven by political uncertainty, it just might improve the sustainability of the European Union. David is an American academic and risk advisory specialist with extensive private sector experience. http://www.dmrra.com

Download a copy of First, get their attention

Brendan Donnelly, Director of the Federal Trust, gives his views on the consequences of unleashing the BREXIT tiger.

Download a copy of We have seen the future and it doesn't work

Sir Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills and President of the Board of Trade from 2010 to 2015, outlines his views on why governments are reluctant to invest even when there are strong reasons for doing so.

Download a copy of Why governments won't invest

Economist Andrew Smith gives his views on the economic outlook for 2016 in a recent Financial Times article.

Download a copy of Andrew's responses FT questions Dec 15

A packed meeting at the National Liberal Club heard economist, Andrew Smith, give a wide-ranging economics update. The brief was to provide some ideas about the economic prospects for the UK and EU at the start of a year in which a possible UK EU referendum, the slowdown in China and the plummeting price of oil all pose major uncertainties on top of some serious geopolitical uncertainties. The meeting was sponsored by the Federal Trust and attracted an audience from politics and academia as well as the usual business members of the Industry Forum.

https://player.vimeo.com/video/153713257

On China, Andrew made the points that the equity bubble has burst but this does not necessarily have implications for the real economy. Furthermore, China’s growth slowdown is roughly in line with the Chinese Government’s plan and it is not clear how it will affect other developed economies. On oil Andrew said that normally the reduction of the oil price should be good news for oil consuming economies but is putting producers under severe financial strain.

Andrew reviewed the economic and associated political problems of the EU and looked in some detail at the UK economy. From a complex analysis, two particular conclusions stand out, namely that the UK needs trade with the rest of the EU rather more than they need us and that BREXIT would lead to at least two years of economic uncertainty for the UK.

If you would like to receive a copy of Andrew’s slides please email info@industry-forum.org They will be sent on the condition that they are for personal use and not for quotation or publication. Further briefings are available for Industry Forum members.