The Industry Forum assembled a stellar panel of economists to decide whether Rachel Reeves’s ‘Budget 2024’ is the turning point for the UK economy which it so badly needs. The meeting was hosted by the Chartered Insurance Institute and Matt Connell, Director of Policy and Public Affairs at CII, welcomed guests to the famous ‘Walkie Talkie’ building in the City. Vicky Pryce - Chief Economic Advisor, CEBR, Will Hutton - Political economist, author and journalist, and Andrew Smith - Chief Economist, Industry Forum looked behind the headlines to see how the budget starts to address the deep-seated economic problems of the UK and teased out some optimism that a systematic and focussed approach will bring a growth bonus that the OBR and International Monetary Fund couldn’t predict from bare economic forecasts. There were a number of key takeaways: The spending, borrowing and taxing plans are high and involve some risk, but given the situation any new administration would have faced the same questions for which a laissez-faire approach has no credible answers. Starting to address the problems in public services, infrastructure and housing will have economic benefits from the investment expenditure and improved industrial cooperation which cannot be quantified at this stage. Overall, the conclusion of the meeting was that Budget 2024 can be called a turning point although many questions remain. These include, ‘When will we reform our over-complex tax system? ’How will we repair relations and trade with our European neighbours?’ and ‘How can we regain the international stature to help tackle worsening geopolitical problems?’ Detailed ideas on remaking Britain are contained in Will Hutton’s book, 'This Time No Mistakes,’ and the Industry Forum is planning a busy forward programme of dialogue on many of the other issues facing the UK.

Panellists:

Will Hutton - Political economist, author and journalist
Sarah Howard - CEO, British Chambers of Commerce
Vicky Pryce - Chief Economic Adviser, CEBR
Andrew Smith - Chief Economist, Industry Forum

Recently The Industry Forum welcomed Sir John Armitt, Chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, to lead a roundtable on the subject of ‘HS2 cancellation fallout.’ The Battersea Power Station Development Company hosted the meeting and their CEO, Don O’Sullivan, welcomed guests. The meeting was chaired by Andrew Smith, Chief Economic Adviser to the Industry Forum. Due to the recent change of government, no final and costed replanning has been completed. Possibly 30% of the original budget can be saved but there are consequences: plan changes and delays have big impacts in losing key skilled staff on projects and discouraging private sector confidence in providing finance. An interesting fact that emerged was that most infrastructure projects come in within 10% of their budgets; it’s the big ones, subject to political scope changes and inconsistency, that suffer the headline cost overruns. These are lessons which will apply to new large projects such as building a further Thames crossing. They will undoubtedly be considered as the government prepares its revised infrastructure investment plan due in Spring 2025. Infrastructure improvement (physical and digital) and capital projects funding are key factors that will affect the ability of the UK to meet the government’s vital growth objectives. The Industry Forum looks forward to convening more meetings to tease out the inevitable obstacles to change and how to overcome them.

The keynote speaker at the recent Industry Forum Business Reception was one of our favourite speakers, Chi Onwurah MP for Newcastle Central and West. While she was with us, we also heard that she had been elected Chair of the Science, Innovation and Technology Select Committee. Also, dropping in briefly, was Bill Esterson MP for Sefton Central who had just heard that he has been elected Chair of the Energy Security and Net Zero Select Committee. Rod Dowler, Executive Chair of the Industry Forum welcomed guests to the event, held in the Churchill room of the House of Commons for Industry Forum members and friends from the business, diplomatic and academic worlds to meet up with and welcome members of the new administration, after Labour's landslide win. As technology plays an ever more important part of our lives it was appropriate that the evening was sponsored by two fantastically successful tech companies, Workday and Vodafone. James Johns, Head of Government Affairs for Workday in the UK and Paul Morris, who leads Vodafone’s government relations team, both said a few words about their companies and the opportunities for using technology more in building a UK economic recovery. With so much to celebrate it demonstrated the challenges facing the new administration that our Parliamentary host for the evening Rt Hon Darren Jones MP Jones MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury was unable to join us because of a late-night meeting in the Treasury.

At the Labour Liverpool conference, The Industry Forum partnered with Europe's largest software company, SAP for a fringe meeting on ‘The reality of AI in business’. Our panel was packed with real experts. Chi Onwurah MP, the new chair of the Digital, Innovation and Technology Select committee, and new MPs Louise Jones MP who has a military and intelligence background and Steve Yemm MP who has wide experience in the life sciences sector, represented parliamentary legislators. Chris Francis, Director of Government Affairs, SAP UK, Technology Policy and Standards Expert and James Johns, Head of Corporate Affairs for Workday represented the digital tech sector. It was clear from the wide-ranging discussion that AI is not one thing but a pervasive set of applications, and that its impact across society and business is set to grow rapidly. We can all be grateful that the new House of Commons has been strengthened in its understanding of AI and can talk on equal terms with the companies using AI and bringing AI products to market.

The importance of investment in physics R&D was promoted in a fringe IOP/The Industry Forum meeting at the Labour party conference. The Chair, Anjana Ahuja, highlighted that physics-based industries contribute 11% to UK GDP and 10% to employment. Covering all the bases, the panel included Peter Stephens of Arm, a true UK tech success story, Robert Lamb of the IOP and the research community, Professor of Physics Matthew Brookes from Nottingham University and Jo Slota-Newson from the VC sector. Chi Onwurah MP, newly elected Chair of the Digital, Innovation and Technology Select Committee gave her endorsement of the importance of physics.

‘Tackling our immigration issues’ was the topic of the recent Industry Forum expert roundtable led by Stephen Kinnock MP, Shadow Minister for Immigration. The meeting was sponsored by Lowick a leading reputation management and public affairs consultancy closely aligned with Labour. Kevin McKeever the founder and managing director of Lowick welcomed guests to their new offices close to Tate Modern. Stephen Kinnock identified the need for an immigration system that delivers for the economy and builds social cohesion. The approach of a Labour government would focus equally on compassion and control. The discussion, with people from business and academia, ranged across current bureaucratic failings in providing statistics and processing asylum seekers, the serious skills shortages arising from the end of free movement after Brexit, and the desirability to take the heat out of the current debate. It is clearly necessary to concentrate on improving home office efficiency and unifying border control resources to combat people smuggling. Reducing the backlog of asylum seekers and the cost of housing them would have the major benefit of restoring much of the foreign aid budget to help with reducing some of the problems that lead to asylum applications. In summary, systematically addressing the root problems looks like the most promising way to tackle UK immigration issues. It would be welcomed by UK business and academia.