Progress despite uncertainty

The government is moving with deceptive speed to address problems with UK public services, improve relationships with our European neighbours and lay the foundations of an investment-led growth economy which can profit from and use leading edge technologies. Two big uncertainties overhang future prospects: Rachel Reeves's first budget and the outcome of the US elections. Reeves has the unenviable task of needing to project fiscal caution while knowing that investment in human and physical infrastructure is needed to support the economic growth that will pay for it. A new Trump presidency could cause a sharp jolt for the world economy. For Europe it is likely to mean higher defence spending which would squeeze other programmes; higher US tariffs would hinder trade with the US, and the chances of a US/UK trade deal would be slim.